Table 1. Estimated values of regional TFR (Total fertility rate).
Italy, 2000-2040. Hypothesis 2, constant fertility.
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Region 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
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Piemonte 1.188 1.250 1.250 1.250 1.250
Valle d'Aosta 1.188 1.250 1.250 1.250 1.250
Lombardia 1.250 1.250 1.250 1.250 1.250
Veneto 1.220 1.250 1.250 1.250 1.250
Trentino A.A. 1.345 1.250 1.250 1.250 1.250
Friuli V.G. 1.108 1.250 1.250 1.250 1.250
Liguria 1.107 1.250 1.250 1.250 1.250
Emilia-Romagna 1.157 1.250 1.250 1.250 1.250
Toscana 1.125 1.250 1.250 1.250 1.250
Umbria 1.110 1.250 1.250 1.250 1.250
Marche 1.220 1.250 1.250 1.250 1.250
Lazio 1.250 1.250 1.250 1.250 1.250
Abruzzi 1.250 1.250 1.250 1.250 1.250
Molise 1.241 1.250 1.250 1.250 1.250
Campania 1.453 1.303 1.250 1.250 1.250
Puglia 1.395 1.250 1.250 1.250 1.250
Basilicata 1.481 1.331 1.250 1.250 1.250
Calabria 1.459 1.309 1.250 1.250 1.250
Sicilia 1.619 1.469 1.319 1.250 1.250
Sardegna 1.366 1.250 1.250 1.250 1.250
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Italy 1.329 1.293 1.250 1.250 1.250
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Table 2. Estimated values of regional TFR. Italy 2000-2040.
Hypothesis 4, growing fertility with acceleration
in 30 years.
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Region 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
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Piemonte 1.193 1.719 1.858 1.871 1.871
Valle d’Aosta 1.193 1.719 1.858 1.871 1.871
Lombardia 1.264 1.805 1.948 1.962 1.962
Veneto 1.226 1.759 1.900 1.913 1.913
Trentino A.A. 1.476 2.049 2.201 2.215 2.215
Friuli V.G. 1.110 1.616 1.751 1.763 1.763
Liguria 1.109 1.615 1.749 1.761 1.761
Emilia-Romagna 1.161 1.679 1.817 1.830 1.830
Toscana 1.128 1.639 1.775 1.787 1.787
Umbria 1.113 1.620 1.754 1.767 1.767
Marche 1.226 1.759 1.900 1.913 1.913
Lazio 1.328 1.881 2.028 2.041 2.041
Abruzzi 1.294 1.841 1.986 1.999 1.999
Molise 1.247 1.784 1.927 1.940 1.940
Campania 1.585 2.168 2.323 2.337 2.337
Puglia 1.526 2.104 2.258 2.272 2.272
Basilicata 1.613 2.198 2.353 2.367 2.367
Calabria 1.591 2.174 2.329 2.343 2.343
Sicilia 1.752 2.340 2.496 2.510 2.510
Sardegna 1.497 2.073 2.225 2.239 2.239
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Italy 1.392 1.957 2.093 2.127 2.143
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Table 3. Estimated values of regional TFR. Italy, 2000-2040.
Hypothesis 5, growing fertilità with acceleration in
40 years.
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Region 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
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Piemonte 1.146 1.388 1.553 1.593 1.600
Valle d'Aosta 1.146 1.388 1.553 1.593 1.600
Lombardia 1.212 1.419 1.560 1.594 1.600
Veneto 1.177 1.402 1.556 1.594 1.600
Trentino A.A. 1.413 1.512 1.580 1.597 1.600
Friuli V.G. 1.068 1.351 1.545 1.593 1.600
Liguria 1.067 1.351 1.545 1.593 1.600
Emilia-Romagna 1.116 1.374 1.550 1.593 1.600
Toscana 1.085 1.359 1.547 1.593 1.600
Umbria 1.071 1.353 1.545 1.593 1.600
Marche 1.177 1.402 1.556 1.594 1.600
Lazio 1.273 1.447 1.566 1.595 1.600
Abruzzi 1.241 1.432 1.563 1.595 1.600
Molise 1.197 1.411 1.558 1.594 1.600
Campania 1.517 1.561 1.591 1.599 1.600
Puglia 1.460 1.535 1.585 1.598 1.600
Basilicata 1.544 1.574 1.594 1.599 1.600
Calabria 1.522 1.564 1.592 1.599 1.600
Sicilia 1.676 1.636 1.608 1.601 1.600
Sardegna 1.433 1.522 1.583 1.598 1.600
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Italy 1.334 1.483 1.568 1.599 1.600
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