Population.it - demographic software

In the cover page:

Jean-Jacques Sempé: "Ensemble instrumental Paul Poulignot"

1993 Edition du Désastre 21, rue Visconti - Paris

________________________________________________________

Obligations fixed by Article n.1-D.L.L 31/08/1945, n.660 have been performed. All rights reserved. No part of the manual, or of the CD-ROM including the software, shall be reproduced, stored in a retrevial system, or transmitted by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without written permission from the author. The author of PRODEMOG 3.0 accepts no responsibility for damages resulting from its use and makes no warranty or representation, express or implied, including but not limited to, any implied warranty or merchantability or fitness, for a particular purpose. This software is provider "AS IS ", and its user, assume all risks when using it.

_____________________

INTRODUCTION AND ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The first version of PRODEMOG, published in 1989^(*), and successive versions presented

partially in scientific meetings and educational activities, utilized BASIC for the programming.

PRODEMOG 3.0, which retains many newly integrated and improved programs from the

original package, is now configured in Visual Basic, thereby becoming easier and faster

to use in the environment Windows. Some of the basic research necessary for the

development of this version, has been partially financed by the National Research Council

(C.N.R) and the Ministry of Scientific Research, Italy.

The following researchers and colleagues (listed in alphabetic order) collaborated with me

in the revision and verification of the programs: Patrizia Accordi, Riccardo Aldinucci,

Giovanna Barcaro, Mario Berti, Enrico Bonci, Giovanna Campisi, Alessandro Chini,

Leonardo Ferri, Luigi Fontani, Maurizio Garosi, Cesare Giachetti, Flavio Giannetti, Riccardo

Giannetti, Matteo Juliani. To all, and to the students who participated in seminars and courses given on this subject, a sincere thanks.

Particular thanks to Andrea Menchiari who provided indispensable help in the preparation of

many programs. A special acknowledgement is due to Linda Mesh for the translation of the

manuscript from Italian to English.

The planning of PRODEMOG 3.0 in Visual Basic was realized and revised by a group of five

young experts, who worked with great diligence and total professionalism.

The actual complexity of scientific research requires a process of teamwork where there

is the amalgamation of related abilities and yet differing professional specializations. The

cover design, with the work of Mr. J. J. Sempe`, whom I thank for his permission for

reproduction, is a symbolic rendition of the idea behind this process: the planning, the

execution, the formation and finally, the thanks. All of these are criterion that we try to

respect as we wait for the critique. The current version of PRODEMOG 3.0 lacks certain

characteristics, such as a specific text editor, which we hope to include in a future version.

Any questions, notice of bugs discovered and suggestions are welcome.

January, 2000. Luciano Petrioli

__________________________________________________________

(*) Petrioli, L. (1989), "Demographic software. PRODEMOG", Institute of Statistics, Faculty

of Economic Sciences and Banking, University of Siena, Italy. This version united in an

organized form various programs prepared by the same author for a training course for

experts regarding the collection and elaboration of data, held in 1987 at the Department

of Demography, University of Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo (formerly Zaire).

____________________________________________________

The use of BASIC was a fundamental achievement in the realization of demographic software, due to the simplicity of the language and by the computer-friendly program operation.

The first version of PRODEMOG (1989) was written in BASIC and operated in DOS. Now, with Windows and Visual Basic, the utilization of the software is very sophisticated: calculation speed is maximized, program operation is very simple, data programs may be considered, and it is possible to create and manage a database.

For each of the subjects dealt with, this demographic software computes:

PRODEMOG 3.0, which is dedicated to the solution of various demographic problems, has the following characteristics:

Main use: education and research application;

User skill: subject intermediate level:

Computer: medium skill level.

FERTILITY

a distribution of fertility rates for five-year age intervals as a distribution for an annual age interval, estimating mean, standard deviation, skewness, etc.;
a theoretical distribution of fertility by mean and standard deviation of an observed distribution;
the analysis of fertility rates by logits;
the parameters of theoretical functions adapted to distributions of annual fertility rates(Beta, Frechet, Gamma, Gompertz, Gumbel, Inverse Gaussian, Hadwiger, Logistic, Log-normal, Maxwell - Boltzmann, Normal, Rayleigh, Reduced Resistance, Slackened, Reproduction, Vapor Pressure Model, Weibull).

MORTALITY

the construction of mortality models;
the relative life table for annual age intervals is estimated from a life table for five-year age intervals;
the estimate of a combined life table for both sexes using two corresponding tables (one male and one female);
the analysis of life tables by logits;
the parameters of theoretical functions (Gompertz, Logistic, Petr, Weibull) applied to life tables.

POPULATION AND PROJECTION MODELS

the analysis and projection of population for five-year age intervals;
the population trend by logistic function.

VARIOUS

the evaluation of the quality of a census (Whipple and Myers indexes) and the correction of the original data;
the rate of population growth in conformity with the integral of Lotka;
the computation of life table, survival rates and stationary population;
the construction of population pyramids.